Key Of Success

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Quoting Conventions

In the Foreign Exchange market, currencies are traded in pairs. For instance, a speculator may trade the Euro versus the US Dollar, EUR/USD, or the US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen, USD/JPY. The base currency is the term for the first currency in the pair. The counter currency is the term for the second currency in the pair. The exchange rate represents the number of units of the counter currency that one unit of the base currency can purchase.

Traders in the Foreign Exchange market are speculating on the exchange rate between two currencies. Exchange rates measure the relative strength of one currency to another. Speculators make buy and sell decisions on currency pairs based on fundamental and technical analysis, with the intention of the exchange rate moving in their favor.

EUR/USD
In this example euro is the base currency and thus the “basis” for the buy/sell.
If you believe that the US economy will continue to weaken and this will hurt the US dollar, you would execute a BUY EUR/USD order. By doing so you have bought euros in the expectation that they will appreciate versus the US dollar. If you believe that the US economy is strong and the euro will weaken against the US dollar you would execute a SELL EUR/USD order. By doing so you have sold euros in the expectation that they will depreciate versus the US dollar.

USD/JPY
In this example the US dollar is the base currency and thus the “basis” for the buy/sell.
If you think that the Japanese government is going to weaken the yen in order to help its export industry, you would execute a BUY USD/JPY order. By doing so you have bought U.S dollars in the expectation that they will appreciate versus the Japanese yen. If you believe that Japanese investors are pulling money out of U.S. financial markets and repatriating funds back to Japan, and this will hurt the US dollar, you would execute a SELL USD/JPY order. By doing so you have sold U.S dollars in the expectation that they will depreciate against the Japanese yen.

GBP/USD
In this example the GBP is the base currency and thus the “basis” for the buy/sell.
If you think the British economy will continue to be the leading economy among the G7 nations in terms of growth, thus buying the pound, you would execute a BUY GBP/USD order. By doing so you have bought pounds in the expectation that they will appreciate versus the US dollar. If you believe the British are going to adopt the euro and this will weaken pounds as they devalue their currency in anticipation of the merge, you would execute a SELL GBP/USD order. By doing so you have sold pounds in the expectation that they will depreciate against the US dollar.

USD/CHF
In this example the USD is the base currency and thus the “basis” for the buy/sell.
If you think the Swiss franc is overvalued, you would execute a BUY USD/CHF order. By doing so you have bought US dollars in the expectation that they will appreciate versus the Swiss Franc. If you believe that due to instability in the Middle East and in U.S. financial markets the dollar will continue to weaken, you would execute a SELL USD/CHF order. By doing so you have sold US dollars in the expectation that they will depreciate against the Swiss franc.

Sample Trade

A trader wishes to speculate on EUR/USD. Believing that the EUR will rise against the USD, or that the exchange rate will move upwards, the trader places an order to buy EUR/USD at a market rate of 1.3050. Let us also assume that the trader is speculating on 100,000 units of the base currency, which is the standard lot size, or trading increment, used in the Foreign Exchange market. Since the base currency is the first currency in the pair, the trader is speculating on the value of 100,000 Euros with respect to the US Dollar.

In this example, the trader is buying Euros, since he believes the Euro will rise in value with respect to the US Dollar. Accordingly, he finances the transaction of buying 100,000 Euros by borrowing an equivalent amount of US Dollars.

For the trader, the value of the amount borrowed is a function of the exchange rate. Since the exchange rate at the time of the transaction was 1.3050, the market cost for 1 Euro was 1.3050 US Dollars. Hence, 100,000 Euros cost $130,500 (1.3050 * 100,000). This borrowed amount of 130,500 USD must be paid back when the transaction is closed.

Let’s assume that the trader is correct in assuming that the Euro would rise in value with respect to the USD, and that the exchange rate moved to 1.3150, 100 pips above the rate at which the trader entered. If the trader were to close his position now, the 100,000 Euros he purchased at the onset of the transaction would be sold, and his debt of 130,500 US Dollars would be paid off.

At an exchange rate of 1.3150, the trader’s 100,000 Euros are now worth 131,500 US Dollars (100,000 * 1.3150). After repaying the borrowed amount of 130,500, this leaves him with a profit of $1,000.
Traders have equal opportunities to profit regardless of whether the exchange rate is rising or falling.

Spread & Bid / Ask

When viewing quotes, you will notice that there are two prices for each currency pair. Similar to all financial products, FX quotes include a "bid' and "ask". The bid is the price at which a dealer is willing to buy and clients can sell the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The ask is the price at which a dealer is willing to sell and a client can buy.

Bid = The Price at which the Trader (You) Can Sell
Ask = The Price at which the Trader (You) Can Buy

For example, say the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3050 x 1.3053. In this case, the bid is 1.3050 and the ask is 1.3053. The difference between the bid and ask constitutes the spread. In the above example, the spread is 3 pips, or points. This differential reflects the cost of the trade. Essentially, the market would have to move 3 pips in your favor for you to break even, and 4 pips for you to be in your profit zone.

Structure of The Market

The FX market is an over-the-counter market with no centralized exchange. Traders have a choice between firms that offer trade-clearing services.

Unlike many major equities and futures markets, the structure of the FX market is highly decentralized. In other words, there is no central location where trades occur. The New York Stock Exchange, for example, is a totally centralized exchange. All orders pertaining to the purchase or sale of a stock listed on the NYSE are routed to the same dealer and pass through the hands of a single clearing firm. This structure requires buyers and sellers to meet at the NYSE in order to trade a stock that is listed on this exchange. It is for this reason that there is one universally quoted price for a stock at any given time.

In the FX market there are multiple dealers whose business is to unite buyers and sellers. Each dealer has the ability and the authority to execute trades independently of each other. This structure is inherently competitive as traders are faced with a choice between a variety of firms with an equal ability to execute their trades. The firm that offers the best services and execution will capitalize on this market efficiency by attracting the most traders. In the equities markets, the execution of trades is monopolized and there is no incentive for a clearing firm to offer competitive prices, to innovate, or to improve the quality of their service.

Margin

In standard cash stock accounts, money should be deposited for the full amount of the position you are trading, or if you have a margin account, for at least half of the position. This is in contrast to the FX market, where only a small percentage of the actual position value needs to be deposited prior to taking on the trade. This small deposit, known as the margin, is not a down payment, but rather a performance bond or good faith deposit to ensure against trading losses. The margin requirement allows traders to hold positions much larger than their account value (up to 200x the size).

Margin requirements are as low as .5% meaning for every standard lot size of 100,000 units, you must commit $500. However, if you wanted to control a $100,000 in the stock market, you would have to deposit at the very least, $50,000. Even in the futures market you would have to deposit at least $5,000 to control a $100,000 position.

Currency Abbreviations

Below is a list of the abbreviations for various currencies that are commonly traded in the FX market:
EUR = Euro
GBP = British Pound (Sterling, Cable)
JPY = Japanese Yen
CHF = Swiss Franc (Swissie)
USD = United States Dollar
NZD = New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi)
AUD = Australian Dollar (Aussie)
CAD = Canadian Dollar

WHAT DRIVES THE CURRENCY MARKETS

Currency markets move based on countries’ economic data or different world events, which may affect a particular country’s economy.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment can defy logic; market psychology often contradicts business reality. But in the real world, perception can become reality, at least for a time. Therefore, you must at times be prepared to make moves that are against your better judgment. The flip side is that at other times, your investor intuition can prove to be more valuable than painstaking analysis.

CURRENCY BROKERAGE FIRMS

Currency Brokers are firms or agents of large banks that take orders from different clients, companies or countries for an amount of currency that needs to be bought or sold and converted from one to another. Brokerage firms also allow clients to speculate on the values that a currency will move to in the future. Brokers in the U.S. are required to be licensed and are regulated by the NFA or National Futures Association. Most brokerage firms clear their currency purchases through large InterBank Clearing Desks run by the world’s largest banks.

THE SMART INVESTOR

THE SMART INVESTOR Although risk is an inseparable part of the currency market, here are some tips to minimize it: • Use strict Money Management techniques. • Invest only as much as you can afford to lose. Don’t get in over your head. • Don’t trade just to trade. • Always use stop losses to ensure that you’re able to trade again the next opportunity. • Trade with the current trend because the probability of a winning trade is much higher. • Monitor your trades often and don’t be afraid to reassess your positions.

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